Black Arrow - Business Accounting and Advisory

The EU just did something that vindicates years of New Zealand farming policy. 🌿

The European Commission released its first-ever Livestock Strategy this month, and it looks a lot like what New Zealand has been doing all along:

🐄 The EU has stepped back from mandatory livestock reduction, previously pursued in the Netherlands and Ireland
🔬 It has adopted the split-gas approach, treating biogenic methane from animals differently from fossil fuel CO2 - the exact framework New Zealand pioneered and championed internationally
📦 Alignment on standards and regulations means less compliance burden for NZ red meat and dairy exporters into Europe
🤝 The NZ-EU free trade agreement has already expanded two-way trade; this strategic alignment adds another layer of certainty
⚠️ The EU is also pushing "reciprocal" animal welfare standards for imports - watch this closely if you are in poultry or pork

The catch: the Climate Change Commission has simultaneously warned that NZ is at risk of missing all its climate targets, with livestock numbers expected to rise on the back of strong milk and meat prices.

International tailwinds. Domestic policy uncertainty. That is the farming sector's reality right now.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

Inflation just hit 4.1%, the highest in two years. And more rate hikes are coming. 📊

Stats NZ's June quarter CPI data landed today and here is what every business owner needs to know:

⛽ Petrol up 20% and diesel up 48% in a single quarter - together accounting for nearly two-thirds of the CPI rise
🏗️ New house construction costs up 1.6% for the quarter, fastest pace in more than three years
⚡ Electricity up 12% for the year
🏘️ Local body rates up nearly 9% annually
🎯 Strip out fuel, food and energy and underlying inflation sits at just 2.5% - well within the RBNZ target band

The Reserve Bank forecast a 3.9% peak. The actual number came in at 4.1%. That overshoot gives the Committee every reason to keep tightening.

Financial markets are now pricing in at least two more OCR rises to 3% before year end.

If you are on a floating rate or approaching a fixed-rate rollover, plan for 3%, not today's rate. The direction is clear.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

Just when the recovery was starting to feel real, oil prices surged again. ⛽

Here's where things stand for Kiwi businesses right now:

📈 Oil jumped from US$71 to US$85 a barrel in just two weeks after renewed US-Iran conflict
⛽ Petrol peaked at $3.40/litre in April, had eased to $2.90 - Westpac now forecasts $3.10 coming back
🚚 Flow-on effects hit transport, shipping and fertiliser costs across the board
🏦 The Reserve Bank has warned it will not hesitate to act if inflation expectations rise again
💪 The good news: manufacturing held up better than expected, and the domestic recovery is still real

The hardest part of running a business right now is not the crisis itself. It is the whiplash between crisis and recovery, and back again.

RNZ's Corin Dann puts it best: stop waiting for the latest crisis to pass before getting on with it. In the current geopolitical environment, the gap between crises may be shorter than the crises themselves.

Build resilience. Keep your cashflow buffers conservative. And plan for a world where uncertainty is the baseline, not the exception.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

The Reserve Bank just raised the OCR to 2.50%, and more hikes are coming. 📈

Here's what the RBNZ's official statement actually says, in plain English:

🏦 OCR up 25 basis points to 2.50%, decided by full committee consensus
📊 Inflation expected to peak at 3.9% in the June quarter, easing to 3.3% in September
🎯 Target: return inflation to the 2% mid-point by mid-2027
🏠 Short-term mortgage rates have been rising; longer-term rates have eased
⚠️ Further OCR increases appear likely; timing depends on incoming data
🏘️ House prices down 0.4% annually; residential investment contracted in the March quarter

The Committee is split on risk. Two members see inflation risks skewed upward. Four, including Governor Anna Breman, see risks as broadly balanced.
What this means for you:

If you are on a floating rate or approaching a fixed-rate rollover, model a scenario where the OCR hits 3% or above within twelve months. That is not a worst-case; it is a realistic baseline given the signals the Reserve Bank has sent today.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

37% of Kiwi workers feel guilty using AI at work. 28% are using it without telling their employer. 🤖

A new Employment Hero report reveals exactly where New Zealand stands on AI at work, and it's complicated:

😬 38% say using AI feels like cheating
🙈 32% present AI-generated work as their own without disclosing it
👀 28% use AI tools without their company knowing
😰 42% worry AI makes them look replaceable
📱 51% have taught themselves AI skills through YouTube and TikTok
📈 57% say AI is helping them develop more valuable skills

NZ has one of the lowest AI adoption rates compared to the UK, Australia, and Canada. Not because the tools aren't available. Because nobody has had the conversation yet.

The businesses pulling ahead right now are the ones where AI is openly discussed and confidently applied. The ones falling behind are the ones where it's happening in the shadows.

If you haven't talked to your team about AI yet, this is your sign. 👇

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments.



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

"After 4 accountancy companies, you were the first and only that genuinely had my business's interests at heart." 🖤

Receiving a note like this from a client is incredibly humbling. More than anything, it is a powerful reminder of exactly why Black Arrow Business Studio exists.

This week, a truly resilient local business owner we’ve looked after made the tough, strategic call to close their doors due to a mix of changing personal priorities and shifting market dynamics. While it is always heavy to see a chapter end, we want to celebrate them, their journey, and the sheer grit it takes to be a business owner in New Zealand today.

This owner didn’t just run a business; they fought for it through some of the toughest hurdles imaginable:

- Facing the absolute heartbreak of a major break-in and losing a significant amount of stock overnight.

- Navigating the exhausting logistics of hunting for better business locations to find a safer footprint.

- Continuously showing up to work on the business, relentlessly finding new solutions even as the market shifted beneath their feet.

- Knowing when to step back to focus on what matters most personally after giving it their absolute all.

To us, that is the true definition of Kiwi resilience.

When a business faces crises like theft, relocation, or major life changes, the background noise of tax obligations and paperwork doesn't stop; it just gets heavier. We’ve always believed that providing compliance support isn't about being a sterile, transactional spreadsheet. It’s about being a steady, human anchor for someone when they are being tested to their absolute limits.

We stand for human-driven support. We stand for looking at the person behind the numbers and ensuring they never feel like just another invoice. Hearing that we succeeded in making this client feel truly cared for throughout their journey is the greatest success we could ask for.

To our departing client: your strength, adaptability, and wisdom have been inspiring to witness. Thank you for trusting Black Arrow to provide your compliance support and keep your foundations steady. Whatever the future holds next for you personally and professionally, we are cheering you on. 🏏

To our wider Kiwi business community: look after yourselves, back your mates running local shops, and remember that choosing the right path for your own life and well-being is the ultimate business victory.



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

400,000+ Kiwis are behind on payments. Hospo liquidations are up 51%. And yet, arrears just hit a four-year low. 👀

The latest Centrix data tells two very different stories at once:📉 The tough news:

🍽️ Hospitality liquidations up 51% year on year, 421 businesses closed
🛒 Retail trade liquidations up 35%
🏗️ Construction leads all sectors with 755 liquidations in the past year
⚠️ Company liquidations on track for their highest level since 2010
😰 89,000 people are 90+ days overdue, and that number is "sticky"

✅ The encouraging news:
📊 Consumer arrears at 10.95% - lowest in four years
🏠 Mortgage arrears at 1.27% - lowest since September 2023
📈 Mortgage inquiries up 12.5% year on year
🚗 Vehicle loan demand up 8.8%
💳 Credit defaults down 13% year on year

Centrix describes the liquidation surge as the long tail of decisions made years ago, not a new crisis forming today. The upstream damage has likely peaked, but the clean-up is still running.

If your business is feeling the pressure, act early. Options narrow fast when you wait.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

NZ's economic recovery just got pushed back a year, and a fresh round of cost changes lands on 1 July. 📅

Here's what's happening on both fronts:

📈 The bigger picture: Kiwibank's chief economist says the recovery he predicted for 2026 is now a 2027 story. The Middle East conflict and fuel price shock are a temporary setback, not a structural one, he's urging the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady to give the economy room to breathe.

⚠️ 20% chance of recession under a downside scenario. 25% chance of a swift rebound. Most likely outcome: somewhere in between.

🗳️ The upcoming election is already cooling business investment plans.📬 From 1 July:

🚗 FENZ vehicle levy jumps from $9.53 to $25 per vehicle
✉️ Letter postage rises to $3.60 (medium) and $4.90 (large)
👶 Paid parental leave maximum rises to $811.05/week
🏠 FENZ home and contents insurance levies drop slightly

If you run a fleet or manage staff on parental leave, build these into your July budget now.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

Budget 2026's donation tax credit cap is hitting NZ charities at the worst possible time. 🤝

Here's what's changing and why it matters:

💰 From April 2027, individuals can only claim the 33% donation tax credit on up to $100,000 in charitable gifts

👥 Only ~350 people are affected - but they represent 10% of all donations by value ($103M)

📉 One youth disability org already told their donor is cutting their annual gift from $180,000 to $100,000

⚠️ Economist Shamubeel Eaqub warns the cap is "self-defeating" - each dollar saved in tax revenue could destroy more than a dollar in charitable giving

📅 A new mechanism letting donors transfer their credit directly to charities arrives in April 2028 - but that's a 2028 solution to a 2027 problem

Charities are already dealing with reduced government contracts and rising demand. This cap breaks the partnership many major donors felt they had with government.

If you're a high-net-worth donor or advise clients who give generously, now is the time to review your giving strategy before April 2027.

Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.

NZ's economy grew 0.8% in the March quarter. Then the Middle East conflict happened. 👀

Stats NZ data shows real strength building before global headwinds arrived:

📈 GDP up 0.8% in Q1, 1.5% year on year - third straight quarter of growth
🏭 Manufacturing led the charge, with transport equipment, machinery and food driving gains
💼 Business services up 2.2%, wholesale trade up 2.4%
🏗️ Construction down 1% - still the economy's soft spot

🌍 NZ's growth rate outpaced the US, UK, EU, Japan and Australia
The catch: this data predates the energy price shock from the Middle East conflict. Economists are now picking a possible contraction for the June quarter, and the Reserve Bank may still raise the OCR toward a neutral 3% despite the uncertainty ahead.

Solid foundations, genuine global risk. The next few months will tell us a lot.
Read the full breakdown at the link in the comments. 👇



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Black Arrow Business Studio - Supporting Kiwi businesses with practical accounting, tax, financial advice, management solutions, and smarter systems.

Whether you're growing, tidying things up, or just need a bit of guidance. We're here when you need us.